The story of Hurricane Helene, 2024
12:00 UTC, August 14, 2024 "UGH THIS ALARM CLOCK IS GOING TO KILL ME" At 8 AM EDT, the forecaster finally woke up. He quickly prepared to go to work at the National Hurricane Center. It was a somewhat cloudy day in Miami, as the remnants of Gordon were still slightly bringing in clouds. As the forecaster arrived at the NHC, he took a quick look at the satellite imagery of the tropical Atlantic. Nothing unusual was present, except for the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, which moved north, up the Florida Peninsula, and at the time was just north of Orlando. Meanwhile, a rather organized area of disturbed weather was moving across the central Atlantic, and posed a high chance of tropical cyclogenesis as well as presented a threat of bringing high winds and rainfall to the Lesser Antilles. He quickly wrote a tropical weather outlook at 09:00 UTC / 11 AM EDT. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1103 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. The remnants of TROPICAL STORM GORDON are moving north across the Florida Peninsula. No chance of regeneration is expected, but areas ahead of the storm may experience significant rainfall or moderately high winds. The system will likely be not advised on in the next outlook. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. 2. A tropical wave currently moving through the central Atlantic is nearly guaranteed to develop further into a tropical cyclone... ...May present a threat to the Lesser Antilles as it passes through the islands as a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane, however is expected to dissipate after passing through the islands or moving into the northern Atlantic. The next name in the Atlantic naming list is HELENE. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 80 percent. After writing the outlook and then looking at the forecasts again, as well as the storm currently, he wondered if he should have put its chances at nearly 100 percent. Oh well. 18:00 UTC, August 14th, 2024 After looking at the latest model runs, the forecaster noticed, that more and more models brought the system through the Caribbean sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. Fearing a Harvey - type system, he reminded himself to note that in the next outlook. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 501 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 1. A tropical wave currently moving through the central Atlantic is nearly guaranteed to develop further into a tropical cyclone... ...May present a threat to the Lesser Antilles as it passes through the islands as a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane, however is expected to dissipate after passing through the islands or moving into the northern Atlantic. Although that is the most likely path for the storm, worryingly, an increasing number of models is bringing it through the northern Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico, where favorable conditions are prevalent. The next name in the Atlantic naming list is HELENE. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 80 percent. The forecaster, satisfied with his outlook, brought a pizza for dinner. While eating pizza, he started noticing a start of a new convection burst. He looked at shear and sea surface temperatures as well as moisture along Helene's path, and sure enough - it was relatively favorable for tropical cyclones. Helene could certainly reach category 2 there if it intensified before the Caribbean. However, it was even more favorable in the Gulf of Mexico - if the storm got into the right area, it could definitely reach category 4 and above. The other possibility, that Helene would curve northward and along the Gulf Stream, while much less impactful on land, was much less likely at that point, however would result in a weaker storm than the other possibilities. 00:00 UTC, August 15th, 2024 The forecaster noted the extremely organized nature of the system, which at that point, was being close to getting tropical storm warnings in the northern Leeward Islands. As another forecaster took over for the storm, he couldn't do anything else but watch as the storm started developing a circulation. Eventually, he decided to go home. 12:00 UTC, August 15th, 2024 The forecaster quickly came to work after waking up early. It was a sunny day, as the cloud cover from Gordon's remnants had mostly cleared. As he sat down on his computer after arriving to work, he immediately saw that the system had organized a large amount since the last time he saw it. In fact, it was a tropical depression. As he was the assigned forecaster until 00:00 UTC, he quickly wrote an advisory: ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND SOME RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LONG RUN AND BECOME A THREAT TO THE U.S. GULF COAST... Admiring the well-organized convection and adequate circulation, the forecaster then went to look at forecast models. None of them had predicted a northward turn anymore - all were predicting a southern Florida or Gulf of Mexico storm. Some were predicting a Cuban landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, while others predicted something much worse: a Category 3 landfall in Miami. However, the models predicting a Category 3 landfall in Miami also had a reputation for being inaccurate. The forecaster started worrying about the implications of a system passing into the highly favorable Gulf of Mexico. "Oh dear" The forecaster tried to find any reason for the system to not become strong in the Gulf of Mexico, but could find none. And as the system moved west-northwest towards the Northern Leewards, time was running out. The forecaster realized he could do nothing but forecast. So he did. Category:GiedriusforCat5